Probably the four campaign promises he made were much more important
factors:
- He would not raise taxes.
- He would not reduce spending on
education, the most popular government subsidy program.
- He would eliminate a
particularly unpopular increase in car taxes that Davis had enacted in an attempt
to reduce the budget shortfall.
- He would eliminate the state's budget
deficit.
He refused to say how he would solve the problem, and for very good reason.
There are only two ways to reduce the deficits: cut spending or raise taxes.
Schwarzenegger not only promised not to raise a single tax: he also promised to
eliminate an existing tax that annually produces $12 billion in revenue. So he
obviously has to cut spending. The size of the deficit, and his promise to leave
education spending intact, means that the spending cuts from non-educational
programs will have to be huge. Cuts in any program inevitably alienate the people
who benefit from the program, and huge cuts in many programs inevitably alienate
huge numbers of people.
So Arnold made the same decision that Gray Davis would have made: just promise
to solve the problem and worry about details later, after the election. Add to
this his massive celebrity, ample financial resources, skill at public relations,
and the support and advice of his Kennedy relatives — and his victory was
almost inevitable. But voters have no idea how he will deal with the crisis he
faces.
In an ideal world, I suppose, he would argue that his huge plurality is a
mandate from the electorate for radical action and convince California's
overwhelmingly left-liberal Democratic legislature to cut back all sorts of
spending. Of course, in that ideal world, Bush would apologize for undermining
our civil liberties and instigating a jihad against Iraq, end the War of Drugs,
and veto just about all spending authorized by Congress.
We don't live on Big Rock Candy Mountain. It's hard to predict with any kind
of accuracy what will happen in the Golden State, but the chances that Arnold
will have the will to pursue the needed spending cuts are infinitesimal. In the
two weeks following his election, all he did to address the problem was to meet
with President Bush to ask for federal aid.
Of course, Schwarzenegger's evasion of his responsibility to give voters even
a glimmer of how he'll deal with the crisis caused little concern among
California voters. Americans have long believed that whenever they face a
political crisis, a leader will emerge who is able to deal with it effectively.
That's why we remember Abe Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, and Franklin Roosevelt as
great men. Arnold is simply another politician promising miracles. Who better
than a man who has portrayed dozens of heroes?
Why did Arnold run for the nation's second highest office? As nearly as I can
figure, his motivation was pure lust for power. Like Bill Clinton, he is a
specimen of politician in its purest form, a man with no convictions except the
belief that the world would be a better place if he were running things.
Such men are actually the least influential politicians of all: they are
merely pawns of the incentives they face, the interests they represent, and
circumstances completely beyond their control.
I don't know what Arnold will do as governor. But I know enough to rejoice
that I am not a resident of California.
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