The Hollow Revolution

On the morrow of Governor Scott Walker’s brilliant tactical victory in Wisconsin (stripping the public employee unions of collective bargaining rights while Democratic lawmakers loitered in Illinois), it is perhaps timely to examine the “revolution” of November 2010. In the November elections the Republicans made major gains not only in statehouses across the country, but also in Congress. Sixty House seats changed hands. Eighty-seven freshman Republicans, most of them backed by the Tea Party, entered the House in January with a mandate to bring federal spending under control.

What has resulted from this? Has the Republican sweep produced legislation to reform entitlements, curb defense spending, and eliminate entire chunks of government (the Department of Education, for example)? Make no mistake, nothing less is required if the astronomical budget deficit (almost $1.5 trillion this year) and the crushing national debt (now equal to 100% of GDP) are to be tamed.

Well, the answer is no. After all the electioneering, all the emotion and bloviation about the terrible fiscal crisis America faces, the Republicans produced a plan to cut $100 billion from domestic discretionary spending. That $100 billion represented about 7% of the deficit. And of course the figure was quickly negotiated down to 61 billion, then 32 billion. In any case, domestic discretionary spending is not the problem, or at least represents a minor and noncritical aspect of the problem.

Only real entitlement reform and a willingness to reduce America’s commitments around the world (ergo the defense budget) can cure the fiscal illness that is killing America. And despite the willingness of a few politicians in Washington, DC — Paul Ryan and Rand Paul spring to mind — to enact real reforms, neither of the major parties will ever summon the will to do so. The Democrats will remain in thrall to the teachers’ unions and the trial lawyers and the 43% of Americans who pay no federal tax; the Republicans will continue to craft sweetheart legislation for the corporate donors that fund their party. Neither party dares touch a hot button like agricultural subsidies. And both, apparently, remain convinced that America must bestride the globe militarily, despite the absence of any overweening threat to the American people.

The smaller, statewide revolutions initiated by Walker, Governor Christie of New Jersey, and Governor Kasich in Ohio may offer glimmers of hope. But we shall have to see what the next round of elections brings. If these states fall back into the Democratic column in 2012 and 2014, the work of these governors will be undone. And we shall be back to square one.

In any case, Washington will never change in a fundamental way, even if the Republicans sweep the Senate and the White House in 2012 (don’t hold your breath). We are fated to live in interesting times.