The Politics of Yes

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President Barack Obama’s victory was secured by a politics of yes. Telling voters yes is essential to victory since most voters do not like to be told no. The key to political victory is figuring out how to tell the most people yes and the fewest people no. The president secured a second term by successfully employing this strategy.

There are two groups of voters that gave him a second term: women and Latino voters. Women voters do not want to be told no when it comes to their bodies. What put women voters in the president’s camp was such social issues as abortion. As long as abortion is put in terms of women’s health and rights, Republicans will not be able to capture a large enough portion of independent women voters in swing states to win the White House. The Republicans have three options: (1) adopt a pro-choice stance, (2) let the issue fade into the background so that it no longer plays a pivotal role, (3) reframe the debate over abortion from a woman’s health issue to a fetal health issue.

The first option will not, and perhaps should not, happen. Option number three will be a difficult maneuver and may prove too nuanced to change anyone’s mind. This leaves option number two as the only good option for capturing the votes of women who voted for President Obama because of the Republican stance on abortion. At a minimum, though, Republicans need to do a better job of keeping people like Richard Mourdock of Indiana and Todd Akin of Missouri from making inane comments on the topic.

Latino voters, either in fact or in rhetoric, were told yes by Democrats and no by Republicans. Whether it was Arizona’s controversial immigration law SB 1070 or Mitt Romney’s policy of self-deportation, Latino voters saw the Republican Party telling them, “We don’t want you here.” Rick Perry was crushed by the Right during the primary season for his decision as Texas governor to support a bill that would offer in-state tuition to some undocumented students. In other words, when a Republican tried to say yes to the Latino community, the base of the Republican Party turned against him.

Latino voters understood the Republican Party to be telling them no, which is why they went with the president by a 75-23 margin nationally. In an up for grabs Colorado they went his way by a margin of 87 to 10; in Ohio by 82 to 17. Just as with women voters, the GOP needs to find a way to appeal to Latino voters by either changing its stance on controversial issues, emphasizing new issues that may appeal to Latino voters, or reframing the existing debate. The most effective and consistent strategy would be for Republicans to find issues about which their ideas align with the Latino-voting population and push those to the center of the debate.

The evidence is clear; voters want to be told yes. Colorado voters want to be told that, yes, they may smoke what they want, while Maine and Maryland voters want to be told that, yes, they may marry whomever they choose. Victory in 2012 went to the party that told more people yes and fewer people no. The point is not which party has policies that are better for the country, but it is about which party makes voters feel as if they were being told yes.

For those who care about the quality of the proposals this is problematic in that there is no assessment of what is good but only what is politically expedient. Some ideas that are good are not expedient. This is an inherent problem with popular government. James Madison, the author of The Federalist No. 10, knew this to be true, which is why he argued for a republican form of government rather than a democracy: only within a republic where power is divided horizontally and vertically can the capricious nature of the electorate be tempered. Perhaps the safeguards have eroded over time or they were insufficient to begin with, but it appears that Madison's “factions” have found a welcome home within the American political process.

Nobody wants to hear that it is in the nation's best interest, or in the best interest of liberty, to let an industry go bankrupt, to let housing prices fall, or to tell retired people that their financial stability is not the government's responsibility. What most voters want to hear, according to what happened on November 6, is that when we need help we should ask the government and the government should always pronounce a resounding yes!




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The New Shape of Immigration

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There has been a veritable blizzard of major news stories lately. Between the continuing crisis of the European Union, the spate of major rulings from the Supreme Court, and the continuing presidential election campaign, we’re all a bit overwhelmed.

But a recent report from the Pew Research Center bears immigration news worth noting and commenting upon.

The report, aptly called “The Rise of Asian Americans,” is a hefty tome indeed, at 215 pages chock full of data. It reveals that for the first time in history, the plurality of all new American immigrants now hails from Asia — primarily China (23.2% of all Asian Americans), India (18.4%), Japan (7.5%), Korea (9.9%), the Philippines (19.7%), and Vietnam (10.0%).

As recently as 2007, the plurality of immigrants was Hispanic, primarily from Mexico. That year, 540,000 immigrants were Hispanic, compared to 390,000 Asians. But in 2010, Asians were 36% of new immigrants, while Hispanics dropped to 31%.

This culminates the decade-long, precipitous slide in Hispanic immigration, which was at 1.2 million in 2000, fell to about half that in 2002, went up to about 800,000 in 2005, and has dropped steadily since, to less than 400,000 in 2010.

By contrast, the number of Asian Americans quadrupled between 1980 and 2010, and now stands at 18.2 million, counting native- and foreign-born, adults and children. (The Pew Center’s count is slightly higher than the Census Bureau’s, with the difference being that Pew counts people with only one Asian parent as Asian. That is nearly 6% of the population, quite a rise from the 1% it was back in 1965. (By comparison, non-Hispanic whites are 63.3%, Hispanics are 16.7% and blacks 12.3%). The report projects that by mid-century, the number of Asian Americans will hit 41 million.

Of course, this is just a projection by the Pew Center, which is certainly reputable, but obviously fallible. Still, these figures are suggestive.

The reasons for this shift are varied. There are relevant demographic shifts abroad, such as the drop in the birth rate in Mexico, which as recently as the 1960s was one of the highest on the planet, with the average woman having nearly seven children — higher even than Indian and Chinese women — but now is roughly the same as the US rate (a little over two children per average woman).

But the report mentions what is clearly the major factor: our nation’s continuing shift from a manufacturing to an epistemic or knowledge-based economy. Blue-collar jobs, especially the low-skilled ones, simply have been increasingly less in demand over the past quarter-century. And a prolonged recession and slow recovery such as the one we are enduring only increases the gap in employment levels between blue- and white-collar workers.

So the disappearance of a lot of blue-collar jobs, especially in construction, has meant that more opportunities have opened for Asian immigrants, who tend to have higher educational attainment than recent Hispanic immigrants.

Add to this another factor: we have tightened the southern border, which means that Asians, who tend to get more student and high-tech (H1-B) work visas, are now in a better position to come here.

A major factor in their success is the fact that Asian Americans have a lower rate of single-parent households than does the population as a whole (20% versus 37%). They are more likely to be married than is average for Americans (59% versus 51%), and have fewer births to single mothers (16% versus 41%).

However, of paramount importance is the level of higher education. Nearly half (49%) of all Asian American workers have a bachelor’s degree, which is more than half again as many as the average — 28% — for all American workers. For non-Hispanic whites, it is 31%, for blacks 18%, and for Hispanics 13%.

Asian students — both American-born and foreign — tend disproportionately to choose more technical college majors, which is no doubt another factor in their success. In 2010, they received 45% of all engineering doctorates awarded at American universities, 38% of all computer and math doctorates, 33% of all physical sciences doctorates, 25% of all life sciences doctorates, and 19% of all social science doctorates.

Since Asians are culturally very inclined to pursue higher education, and since the US has an extensive but still relatively inexpensive source of higher education, and again since our economy is increasingly knowledge-based, it is no surprise that as a group Asian-Americans are moving sharply upward economically.

That rise has been as dramatic as it has been rapid. Asian Americans now have the highest median household income of any broad American ethnic group — European Americans included. Asian-American households average $66,000 a year, nearly a third higher than the median of all American households (which is $49,800). Whites average $54,000, Hispanics $40,000, and blacks $33,300.

Among Asian Americans, median annual family income varies. Indians average $88,000, Filipinos $75,000, Japanese $65,390, Chinese $65,050, Vietnamese $53,400, and Koreans $50,000. But all this is quite remarkable, considering that according to Pew’s figures, nearly three-fourths (74%) of Asian American adults were born abroad.




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Prosecutorial Indiscretion

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On June 15, 2012, hundreds of thousands of foreign nationals living illegally in the United States turned on their television sets to hear that they had become eligible for (1) a renewable two-year deferral of removal from the country and (2) a work permit.

While this may seem like a big change for those immigrants, the focus here will not be on what it might do for them, but how it was done, and why.

How do you think it was done? Choose one of the following: (a) Congress passed a new law and the president signed it, (b) the Supreme Court struck down an existing law, (c) the president issued an executive order, or (d) none of the above.

If you chose (c), it would be understandable, as it was President Obama who announced this change in front of the cameras outside the White House. There was, however, no executive order. An executive order cannot be used to overturn an existing law. On September 28, 2011, President Obama told a group of Hispanic journalists that “this notion that somehow I can just change the laws unilaterally is not true. The fact of the matter is there are laws on the books I have to enforce.” The rest of the transcript is here:

http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2011/09/obama_on_dream_act_cant_just_c.html

The correct answer is (d), none of the above, which leaves the question, “Then how?”

On June 15, Janet Napolitano, Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, sent a memo to three of her underlings directing them to “exercise prosecutorial discretion” in the cases of certain “low priority” illegal aliens, “effective immediately.” (Yes, she ordered them to exercise discretion.) The memo enumerates the criteria to be used to determine which illegal immigrants will get the deferrals and work permits. The memo is here:

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/s1-exercising-prosecutorial-discretion-individuals-who-came-to-us-as-children.pdf

That’s right; it was done by interoffice memo.

It seems odd, doesn’t it? When I hear of prosecutorial discretion, I think of cases in which discrepancies in the chain of custody of a bag of pot lead the prosecutor not to bring charges or perhaps to drop charges, that sort of thing. But in this case, according to the June 15 New York Times, “more than 800,000 young people” are now eligible for deferrals and work permits because an unelected bureaucrat fired off a memo. Upon reading that, I had three thoughts: first, “That’s quite a few people.” Then, “That’s a pretty sweeping change.” And finally, “That’s some discretion.”

In any case, that seems to be how it was done. But why was it was done in just that way?

What follows is an informal examination of the power of prosecutorial discretion in the United States that may help explain the Secretary’s memo.

I once stayed with a friend who lived in the country just outside Düsseldorf. To go into town, I had to walk a few hundred yards to the end of a narrow lane and then cross a road to get to the bus stop. There was a crosswalk with a signal light activated by a button.

The first time I went to town, I walked down the lane, pressed the button and waited. Then I waited some more. With nothing but time on my hands, I looked down the road toward town and saw a straight, empty road that disappeared into some trees about of a quarter mile away. There were neat fields on either side. I turned my head and looked the other way and saw the same thing, fields and all. I then looked across the road toward the bus stop. After a minute or so, the light changed and I crossed.

On my second trip to town, I pressed the button, looked both ways, and, seeing exactly what I had seen before, quickly crossed the quiet, two-lane road.

In the shade of the bus shelter sat a German woman who did not approve of what I had done. I could tell that she did not approve because she told me so. Though my German is limited, I pieced together her strasse, verboten, and dummkopf, along with her gestures and facial expressions, and got the message. As I stood listening, I was reminded that German could do with more vowels and less phlegm. I was also reminded that I was not in Kansas.

Under the signs that tell pet owners to use plastic bags one often finds a fresh reminder of American pragmatism that would make William James proud.

Americans tend toward pragmatism. An American might say, “The purpose of the light is to prevent people from being run over by cars. If there are no cars, then the light, pragmatically speaking, has no purpose.”

Germans tend toward what might be called legalism. A German might say, “The purpose of the light is to tell the pedestrian when it is permitted to cross the street and, more importantly, when it is forbidden to cross the street.” To the German, the cars have nothing to do with it. While this is a simplification, it is not wrong.

In Southern California, where I live now, American pragmatism is on display for all to see. Each citizen sifts all rules, regulations, and laws through a personal pragmatic filter that removes those that are without purpose or of low priority.

A few examples will make the point. Speed limit signs are, of course, viewed as suggestions. Simple rules of the road regarding merging, tailgating, and signaling lane changes are ignored more often than not. Bicyclists are generally oblivious to traffic lanes, signs, and signals. Many locals feign surprise when told that the recreational use of marijuana is not legal. Only tourists stop at the signs that read “STOP”; locals just glide through. Under the signs that tell pet owners to use the plastic bag provided in the little dispenser one often finds a fresh reminder of American pragmatism that would make William James proud.

A German might ask, “What about the police?” In general, the police exercise a great deal of discretion. They use their personal pragmatic filters to screen out low priority violators and violations. Germans are surprised to see that people continue to disobey many laws even when the police are watching. Some of these violations, like dope smoking, depend on the jurisdiction, while others, like breezing past stop signs, are universal. What really shocks the Germans is that the police disobey many laws themselves. Those who doubt this can follow a squad car through traffic in Southern California and count the violations.

Some Germans find all this pragmatism bracing. Once, when I was camping in Zion National Park, a German with an RV and a sunburn walked up to me. In a beer-fed state of shirtless ecstasy, he threw out his arms and shouted, “Everything in America feels so free!” Most Germans, however, are appalled by our pragmatism. To them, it just seems stupid. I know this because they have told me.

The legal systems of the two countries reflect the difference between pragmatism and legalism. In the United States, as Rebecca Krauss explains in her essay The Theory of Prosecutorial Discretion in Federal Law: Origins and Development,“Prosecutorial discretion is a central component of the federal criminal justice system. Prosecutors decide which cases to pursue and plea bargains to accept, determining the fates of the vast majority of criminal defendants who choose not to stand trial.” She concludes the paragraph by pointing out: “In Germany, however, a rule of compulsory prosecution constrains prosecutorial discretion, checking the prosecutor’s ability to pick and choose which cases to pursue. No comparable regime restrains American prosecutors.” The entire essay can be found here:

http://erepository.law.shu.edu/circuit_review/vol6/iss1/1

Generally, then, in Germany, citizens obey the laws, the police enforce them, and the prosecuting attorneys, if the evidence is sufficient, take cases to trial. By contrast, in the United States, the pragmatic citizenry exercises what might be called perpetratorial discretion, deciding which laws to obey; police exercise enforcement discretion, deciding which offenses and offenders merit citation or arrest; and prosecuting attorneys exercise prosecutorial discretion, deciding which cases will be brought to trial. While this is an exaggeration, it is not wrong. (In China I was told, in response to a question about driving with my headlights on during the day, that “any behavior that is not explicitly permitted should be considered to be prohibited.” They make Germans look like softies.)

There is another connection between American pragmatism and Secretary Napolitano’s use of prosecutorial discretion. Pragmatism is at the root of the illegal immigration problem.

It is obvious that for millions of foreign nationals to reside illegally in the United States, millions of foreign nationals must be exercising perpetratorial discretion and knowingly disobeying what they deem to be low priority laws that cover border crossings and residing in the country without authorization.

In the United States, the pragmatic citizenry exercises what might be called perpetratorial discretion, deciding which laws to obey.

In order for them to stay, of course, it is also necessary for millions of American citizens to exercise their own perpetratorial discretion and knowingly disobey low priority laws that ban hiring illegal aliens. So, undocumented immigrants are hired to pick crops, mow lawns, frame houses, flip burgers, clean hotel rooms, assemble mobile homes, and take care of wealthy people’s children. It is not difficult to find workplaces in Southern California where most of the employees are in the county illegally. Both those doing the hiring and those being hired are getting what they want. As they see it, pragmatically speaking: no harm, no foul.

In addition, entire municipalities, counties, and even states are exercising enforcement discretion, looking at (or not looking at) the offenses and the offenders and deciding that immigration regulations are low priority laws that do not warrant action. Sometimes, the federal government even gently thwarts the efforts of smaller jurisdictions to give these laws a higher priority. Put another way, the crosswalk light says, “Don’t walk,” but there are few, if any, cars.

The consequence of all this perpetratorial and enforcement discretion is that there are very roughly estimated 11 million illegal immigrants living in the United States. What could be a more fitting a punch line to this droll tale than to have the welcome mat put out for 800,000 of these immigrants with an act of mass prosecutorial discretion?

But back to the question: why was the memo sent?

The memo was sent so that the president could announce the good news in front of cameras on the White House lawn. He was pandering for Hispanic votes. Secretary Napolitano could not have sent the memo without his approval. He gave his approval because he wants to keep his job and, for that to happen, there must be a strong Hispanic turnout. The memo will help him get that turnout.

If the release of the memo and its theatrical announcement were not a reelection stunt, the policy could have been quietly announced to the press long ago.

Oh, wait. It was.

According to the Los Angeles Times (August 18, 2011), “The Obama administration announced Thursday that undocumented students and other low-priority immigration offenders would not be targeted for deportation under enforcement programs. . . . The move means that those who are in deportation proceedings will have their cases reviewed and, if they are set aside as low-priority, could possibly be given work permits.” Here is the entire article:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2011/08/dream-act-students-not-targeted-for-deportatiom.html

So, in effect, the change had already been quietly launched last August. The June 15 memo and White House announcement really were a political circus act.

There is a more serious problem with this memo. Prosecutorial discretion has traditionally been used by government attorneys to quietly decide if individual cases should be tried. If the circumstances of a specific undocumented immigrant’s case were such that the attorney in charge of the case judged deportation to be inappropriate, that attorney already had the discretion to defer removal. With this memo, there is not much discretion left. The criteria for deferring removal are enumerated. Discretion has also ceased to be discrete. Prosecutorial discretion has been transformed into a mass political weapon launched by the president from the White House lawn. Its purpose is not only to win millions of votes and the election in November, but also to circumvent the legislative process.

The memo was sent so that the president could announce the good news in front of cameras on the White House lawn. He was pandering for Hispanic votes.

Since the failure of the DREAM Act to pass the Senate, one of the president’s slogans has been, “We can’t wait for Congress to act.” With this memo, we now see what the slogan means. Executive impatience with the legislative and judicial branches of government has a long and colorful history. Historically, many elected executives have become so impatient with the separation of powers that they have arrogated legislative and judicial powers to themselves. While using prosecutorial discretion to alter, practically speaking, the status of 800 thousand people under existing law in order to win an election may not sink to the level of abolishing the legislature, it is an unfortunate step in that direction.

In her essay (see link above), Rebecca Krauss makes three points about this expansion of prosecutorial power. First, far from being embedded in the constitution, prosecutorial discretion does not make its first appearance in American case law until 1961. It has been cited with increasing frequency ever since. Second, prosecutorial discretion is not subject to normal judicial review, and is consequently outside the balancing framework of the separation of powers. Third, the rapid growth of prosecutorial discretion in both its breadth of scope and its frequency of use has been of increasing concern to legal scholars. Summing up these points, Krauss writes:

The Framers’ “constant aim [was] to divide and arrange the several offices [of government] in such a manner as that each may be a check on the other,” yet the other branches of government provide almost no check on prosecutorial powers. Rachel Barkow has remarked that “[o]ne need not be an expert in separation-of-powers theory to know that combining [modern prosecutorial] powers in a single actor can lead to gross abuses.”

The Napolitano memo was an abuse of prosecutorial discretion. While it may have been legal, it was an electioneering gimmick and a contrived expansion of prosecutorial discretion. Some day, the shoe may be on the other foot. What if a future president, exercising prosecutorial discretion, deems an array of federal gun control laws to be “low priority,” and directs the responsible authorities to defer all action in enforcing those laws and in bringing such cases to trial? What do you suppose the New York Times editorial page will have to say about prosecutorial discretion then? Or suppose a president deems the laws that defend private property to be “low priority” and has one of his secretaries fire off a short memo that suspends “effective immediately” all enforcement of private property rights? What do you suppose libertarian journals will have to say about prosecutorial discretion then?

Our democracy is an untidy system, with its checks, balances, two houses, three branches, and 50 states. It’s full of squabbles and compromises, contradictions and delays. It is that way by design.

Tyrannies are neat. All you have to do is send a memo.

rdquo;; locals just glide through. Under the signs that tell pet owners to use the plastic bag provided in the little dispenser one often finds a fresh reminder of American pragmatism that would make William James proud.




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Immigration: Meeting the Challenge

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A deeply contentious issue in American politics is immigration, especially illegal immigration. As recently as 2007, the issue caused major fissures in both major parties. And the debate is equally heated in many European countries.

Stepping boldly into the immigration debate is economist Gary Becker, who proposes a novel — nay, radical — solution to the problem in a short new book by the Institute of Economic Affairs. Becker is the 1992 Nobel Prize winner in economics, receiving it for producing a wealth of research using the standard microeconomic model to explicate a wide variety of human behavior, including behavior in fields traditionally considered outside the domain of economic analysis. He has done seminal work in areas such as addiction, marriage and family economics, human capital, criminal behavior, national demographics, and discrimination.

Becker begins by reviewing the international immigration trends. He notes that one of the main motives for immigration is the large average income gap between rich and poor countries. Despite the fact that poor countries have progressed economically, that gap is still large. Another big influence is fertility gaps among nations, with almost all European nations having fertility levels well below replacement level (2.1 children per woman), while in many areas of the developing world, the fertility rate is still high.

Becker notes that opposition is strong against unrestricted immigration in developed countries; and accordingly all of them — including the US since 1925 — have more or less restrictive immigration laws. But as he adds, while many other countries (such as Australia, Canada, and the UK) allow people in for work-related reasons, our law permits immigration primarily for family and humanitarian reasons.

In an aside, Becker mentions a common feeling among his libertarian friends, who say we ought just to go back to our (alleged) historical position of welcoming all comers. But while he usually inclines towards libertarian principles, he objects (as did Milton Friedman) that modern America is a welfare state, and this will give an incentive to some people to come for governmental benefits.

To the idea of just limiting by law how quickly new immigrants could receive welfare benefits, he replies that such laws would be hard to implement, and anyway, the immigrants would soon be voters, so unless we could select people inclined to vote against welfare programs, the new immigrants would simply vote for the limitations to be lifted.

Becker points out the anomaly of America's limiting immigration by the most highly trained foreigners (for example, by means of the low cap on the H-1B visa program), and indicates that these limitations on legal immigration lead to large amounts of illegal immigration.

Recognizing that besides bringing benefits, immigrants bring costs (crime, welfare, and medical costs, etc.), Becker devises a characteristically direct and simple solution: countries should just sell the right to immigrate. The government could exclude the obvious cases (such as criminals, possible terrorists, and people with communicable diseases) and charge everyone else who wants to come, say, $50,000 (Becker’s figure).

He argues the merits of this simple scheme by adducing a number of points. First, it would attract the most skilled immigrants — such as those with technical degrees — who could easily either pay the fee themselves or find employers who would pay it for them. Again, more young people would immigrate than old ones, because the young would have more time to pay off the fee or earn it back (if they borrowed it from a third party). Moreover, his system would attract the immigrants most committed to being permanent citizens, because the ones who only plan a temporary stay would be deterred by the loss of their fees.

Another argument Becker offers is that his system would lessen the resentment citizens feel toward immigrants. In a welfare state, ordinary taxpayers fear that immigrants will be “free riders,” taking government benefits but not fully contributing to pay for them. The revenue brought in every year by the immigrants’ fees (about $50 billion for America under its existing rate of legal immigration) would help to offset the costs incurred by them.

A problem with this argument is that in America, hostility to immigration grew dramatically in the 1910s and 1920s, leading to legislation in 1925 that virtually ended it, but welfare programs as such were virtually nonexistent at the time.

Becker also argues that his system would not block poor though highly skilled workers, because they would be able to get loans, which their employers would be ready to pay. A counter here is that if other nations don’t charge a similar fee, the skilled immigrants would likely choose to immigrate to those nations. Similarly, his system would incentivize domestic high-tech firms to move their operations to countries with no immigration fees.

Becker concludes by noting that the fee amount he picked is arbitrary, and might be set higher or lower depending upon how many people we would want to allow in, and that there are many details that would have to be worked out, such an how to set the fee for spouses, children, and people fleeing persecution. In a later discussion, he admits that a variant on his scheme might be to set an annual quota and let prospective immigrants bid, with the highest bidders getting the available slots.

But this brings up another problem with his proposal: it is silent about how high to set the limit for legal immigration. This is no minor matter, for research done by Robert Putnam and others seems to show a significant cost to society from widespread immigration, especially when immigrants cluster in a community. The issue is that of “social capital” — the depth and breadth of social networks in a community, from which spring the valuable but hard to quantify habits of mutual trust and reciprocity. Under Becker’s proposal, how do we know whether asking even $50,000 for each immigrant will keep immigration to a level at which assimilation will occur quickly enough that social capital is not undermined?


Editor's Note: Review of "The Challenge of Immigration," by Gary Becker. London: The Institute of Economic Affairs, 2011. 66 pages.



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Why Obama is Losing the Latino Vote

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The recent news regarding President Obama’s support in the Latino community is quite amazing. In the 2008 election, Obama won 67% of their votes. But his support among Latinos has now slipped below 50% — 49%, to be exact, in a recent Gallup Poll. Why the slippage, and what does it mean for coming elections?

One suspects that (in part) Obama’s remarkable loss of Latino support is of a piece with his loss of support among independent white voters. It has to do with broken promises, specifically, and a failure to deliver economic health, generally.

Consider independent white blue-collar voters. Running for office, Obama played the role of Post-Racial Man. He insinuated that he understood white workers' anger at racial preferences in college admissions, hiring, and promotions. When it was discovered that he was a long-standing member of a “black liberation theology” church, he feigned ignorance and dropped out of church.

But in office, he has pushed race preferences with a vengeance, appointing two unabashed Quota Queens to the Supreme Court. And Obama's attorney general, Eric Holder, has seemed to many to be racially biased in the way he has handled several issues, such as the case against the Black Panthers who were charged with voter intimidation in a lawsuit filed in 2009 by the Justice Department.

The point here is that when someone has little record in office and a mainstream media completely supportive of — nay, sycophantic toward — him, he can portray himself as anything he cares to look like. But once in office, he will have to make choices, and those choices will then define him.

In his campaign for Latino votes, Obama cleverly played the part of the Universal Minority Man, a victim-just-like-you kind of guy, promising to listen to Latinos in a way that the hate-filled nativists on talk radio could never do. He would solve the seemingly intractable problem of immigration, and open the doors to everybody who wanted to come in.

In doing so, he deliberately obscured some issues that would have troubled Latinos, had he spoken openly about them.

For one thing, he never revealed to Latino audiences that as senator he did virtually nothing to help Bush and McCain get their compromise comprehensive immigration reform bill through Congress. It came close to passing but died under a firestorm of populist anger, fanned by the “talkerati,” the conservative talk-show hosts. In fact, Obama voted for an amendment to strip the legislation of its temporary worker visa program, thus helping to scuttle the bill. It isn’t clear why he did that. Part of the reason had to be an attempt to curry favor with those in organized labor and in his own ethnic community who are fearful of more workers coming in.

This last point touches another topic Obama sidestepped during his campaign: African-American antipathy toward Latinos. In many segments of the African-American community, there is a deep resentment of Latinos. Latinos are seen as competing for many of the same jobs that African-Americans want to get, as well as for the same space in the same neighborhoods. Even more galling, Latino activists are viewed as pushing their own “victimhood” narrative, which dilutes the spoils of the victim status that African-American activists have taken for granted for decades.

After all, affirmative action — usually a euphemism for hiring a less qualified “minority” over a white or Asian male — is obviously more beneficial to African-Americans if “minority” means only “African-American” than if it means “African-American, Latino, Pacific Islander, Native American, Asian woman, white woman, or GLBT.”

In office, Obama has given Latinos more reasons to become disenchanted with him.

For example, Obama — who, to be fair, had signaled during his campaign that he held NAFTA to blame for costing American jobs (a stance that cost him the primary election in Texas against Hillary Clinton, whose husband had signed NAFTA into law) — started a trade war with Mexico the minute he got into office.

Yes, the newly elected Obama decided to throw a bone to the Teamsters union (which had supported him lavishly in his campaign) by denying even a small number of Mexican truckers the right to drive American routes, on a trial basis — a right given to them by NAFTA. The president didn’t just stiff the truckers; his supporters spread the nasty story that Mexican truckers are inferior drivers and that Mexican trucks are all unsafe, even though under the earlier agreement, those trucks would be constantly monitored.

Mexico was rightly furious and retaliated by slapping massive tariffs on a wide range of American products, especially agricultural ones. These tariffs cost upwards of 25,000 American jobs, many of them held by Latinos. So an act intended to hurt Mexican workers wound up hurting Mexican-American ones far more.

Then there was Obama’s conspicuous failure to deliver on comprehensive immigration reform. For two years his party completely controlled Congress, and could easily have passed — probably with bipartisan support — a reasonable reform bill. But Obama showed no particular interest in the topic; much less did he push any such bill through Congress, in the way he rammed through Obamacare. In fact, he didn’t even push the Dream Act through Congress when he controlled it. This, unlike his earlier, covertly obstructive actions regarding the Bush-McCain legislation, Latinos noticed, because now he was president.

While Bush tried his best to get an immigration reform bill through a Congress he couldn’t control, Obama never tried to do the same when he virtually owned Congress.

Of course, when the Republicans won back the House of Representatives last year, Obama tried floating the narrative that he desperately wanted comprehensive immigration reform, but the Rascally Racist Republicans were in the way. He taunted the Republicans in a speech before a primarily Latino audience in El Paso in May of this year, saying that when the Republicans were urging him to protect the border, they were being disingenuous and silly: “Maybe they’ll need a moat. . . . Maybe they’ll want alligators in the moat.” But the stark reality facing Latinos is that while Bush tried his best to get a deal through a Congress he couldn’t control, Obama never tried to do the same when he virtually owned Congress.

Other major reasons for Obama’s loss of Latino support are his two major policy changes on the handling of undocumented workers, both of which have produced large unintended, and unfavorable, consequences.

The first concerns companies that employ illegal aliens. In 2009, Obama’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) department started aggressively auditing companies to see if they hired undocumented workers, and severely punishing companies that did. That is, Obama had his myrmidons deliberately transfer to business the burden of securing the border. If ICE catches a company employing illegal aliens, the company is subject to heavy fines and sanctions, while the workers go free.

This essentially reversed the policy of prior presidents, which had been to deport illegal aliens when caught, but not necessarily punish the companies employing them (unless there was specific evidence of intent to employ illegals). No doubt Obama’s decision grew out of his instinctive, visceral animosity toward business, as well as his desire to regulate and control it.

However, this policy has bitten deep, as ICE has hammered employers it considers “magnets” for illegal workers.  Companies like American Apparel (in 2009) and Chipotle Grill (in 2010) got hit hard, with ICE looking especially closely at companies in the agricultural, construction, food processing, and restaurant sectors. And there are a lot of these companies — nearly 2,400 were targeted last year alone.

The fines have often been brutal. One company, Yamato Engine Specialists, had to pay a $100,000 fine — for employing a couple of dozen undocumented workers. American Apparel had to pay $35,000, not to mention losing one fourth of its work force.

In this policy as in most of his others, Obama sought a dramatic increase in the regulation and control of private industry. Immigration activists — who are typically ardent leftists with a deep-seated aversion to business — originally supported it. But they quickly learned a lesson in the law of unintended consequences. Employers dumped a lot of illegal aliens who, yes, weren’t deported. However, that in turn meant that while those workers by and large remained in America, they also that they had to take worse jobs or remain unemployed — displeasing both the undocumented workers and the pro-immigration activists. And the businesses targeted now have a powerful reason to avoid hiring any Latinos, which has got to displease Latinos generally.

No doubt Obama’s decision grew out of his instinctive, visceral animosity toward business, as well as his desire to regulate and control it.

The other policy change regarding the treatment of illegals is one that Obama's Homeland Security Department has been implementing since 2008. It's the Secure Communities Program, “S-Comm” for short. When local or state police arrest anyone, they run the suspect’s fingerprints through the FBI criminal database to see if he has a criminal history. Under S-Comm, the cases in which an illegal alien has been arrested and looks as if he may have a criminal background are sent to the DHS so ICE can determine whether this person should be deported. In the past, states could choose to participate in the program if they wished, but now it is becoming mandatory for all states. The idea of S-Comm is to prioritize deportations, so that convicted criminals are deported first.

ICE head John Morton has said that 90% of those deported over the last two years — nearly 400,000 per year — have been either criminals or people who had earlier been ordered to leave the country.

But there have been a number of bad unintended consequences. Start with the fact that 28% of those deported under S-Comm actually had no criminal records. Some had just gotten traffic tickets.  S-Comm has clogged the immigration courts, as people wrongly nabbed fight to keep from being deported, which often means a breakup of a family. Worse, many of the non-criminals were picked up on the database check not because they themselves had criminal histories but because they had worked with the police in a criminal investigation (as witnesses or informants). Thus S-Comm discourages cooperation with police in solving serious crimes.

Yet another major reason Latinos are abandoning Obama is the high unemployment rate among their population (which typically has lower than average unemployment rates), because of Obama’s baleful economic policies. Nationally, while the general unemployment rate is about 9%, Latino unemployment is at 11% — or about a fourth again higher than the country as a whole. It has not escaped the notice of Latinos that Mexico now has a much lower unemployment rate (at 4.9%) and a much higher economic growth rate (at 4–5% annually) than the United States. It is almost insufferably rich that California has lost about 300,000 illegal immigrants since Obama took office, with many of them moving back to Mexico, where they report that it is easier to buy a home and send their kids to college.

One last reason for the drop in Obama’s support among Latinos should be noted. This one is harder to quantify precisely, but in my view is still immensely important. Latinos culturally are extremely enterprising and entrepreneurial. While they attend college at lower rates than Asians and whites, they run small businesses at a disproportionately higher rate than the population as a whole.

But Obamanomics has been especially pernicious when it comes to the formation and flourishing of small businesses. Regulations that are merely onerous to big businesses (with their large accounting departments and access to legal power) are death to small ones, because they find it harder to absorb or pass along the costs. And the essence of Obamanomics is the dramatic increasing of regulations of every sort.

The news of the collapse of support among Latinos has obviously rocked the White House. It has recently taken steps to reverse or mitigate its earlier policies, obviously wishing to recover that support.

First there was Obama’s complete capitulation, two months ago, in the trade war he started with Mexico. Bluntly put, the great American-Mexican trade war ended not with a bang but with an Obama whimper. Under a deal signed in July, Mexican truckers will be allowed to drive American routes. As soon as the first Mexican truck is allowed entry, Mexico will end its tariffs completely.

Obama must have calculated that the labor support he would lose by throwing the Teamsters under the bus — or more exactly, the truck — was a sacrifice he would have to make to help regain his standing in a crucial ethnic group.

Second, and seemingly out of the blue, the White House recently announced that it is changing its policies on handling illegal immigrants. It now will review the cases of 300,000 illegal aliens awaiting deportation and allow those who are not criminals or threats to public safety to remain here. While the administration portrayed this as a way for federal agencies to better their focus on real security threats, the claim was clearly a rationalization.

Obama’s difficulties with Hispanic voters offer the Republican Party an extremely rare and important opportunity to reshape American electoral politics for generations to come. It is clear that there is a demographic shift under way, with the percentage of Latinos in the population rising. If the GOP can start to split that vote more evenly with the Democrats, or perhaps to win the majority of it, the GOP will be well served.

Obama must have calculated that the labor support he would lose by throwing the Teamsters under the bus was a sacrifice he would have to make to help regain his standing in a crucial ethnic group.

This requires two things at least. For one, the Republican Party needs to learn to play ethnic politics better. It needs to actively groom and advance lots of conservative Latino political leaders. It has made a modest start, offering a number of impressive politicians, including Susana Martinez of New Mexico, Ted Cruz of Texas, Brian Sandoval of Nevada, and most prominently Marco Rubio of Florida. But the Republicans are going to need many dozens of such leaders at all political levels.

Parenthetically, knowing that Obama has now got to fight for the Latino vote, Marco Rubio is more compelling than ever as a choice for Vice President by whomever wins the Republican nomination for President next year.

But even more importantly, the Republican Party has to come to some kind of reasonable agreement on immigration reform. Put together a compromise solution of wide appeal, and build it into the party platform. The GOP needs to get this incubus off of itself for good. If that displeases some of the more nativist talkerati, so be it. One such host — who ran parodies such as “Jose, Can You See” and talked about “another stupid Mexican coming across the border” — without doubt cost the GOP enormously in several states where those comments were played in Democratic campaign ads. That is not the sort of person to whom the GOP needs to cater.

The talkerati are after higher ratings, and will try to get them by spewing whatever populist clap-trap they think will appeal to their listeners. But the GOP needs to position itself for the future, and can do so if it can finally get real about ethnic politics and immigration policy.




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Earth Invaded by Metaphor

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When I was a little girl, all the kids in my neighborhood would gather on summer afternoons to play Cowboys and Indians. I had never met an Indian (heck, I had never met a cowboy, either) but I saw them on TV. I knew the Indians were the bad guys because they were different from me. The men had long hair, seldom wore shirts, slept in round tents, and grunted "How" when they talked. The women wrapped in blankets and carried babies on their backs. The cowboys were good because they wore boots and hats and talked in complete sentences. Their women wore eye makeup and beehive hairdos. They were like us.

My kids never played Cowboys and Indians. The game has long fallen out of favor, being considered insensitive to Native Americans. But they did play Aliens. A lot. (They still do, in fact, mostly on Xbox.) Space is the new frontier where we can still hold onto our prejudices — the ones that assert, "My kind are good; the other kind are bad." I realize that we never were fighting against Indians, really. We were fighting against "other," that unknown quality of beings that are different from us. We called them "Indians," but they were really just "aliens" all along.

So the only surprise about the film Cowboys and Aliens that opened this weekend is that no one thought of it any sooner. I awaited it eagerly, knowing that it would be laden with metaphor and ripe for a review.

Director Jon Favreau makes the point about aliens quickly and clearly. Daniel Craig plays Jake Lonergan, an amnesiac drifter with a mean right hook; and Harrison Ford is Woodrow Dolarhyde, a rancher who's mean and rich (his name says it all). Initially the setting is populated by groups of people who don't like each other: city folk who don't like ranchers, bandits who don't like city folk, and Indians who don't like anyone white. Interestingly, however, on a personal level there is a lot of interracial connection in this movie — the white innkeeper is married to a Mexican woman, for example, and the rancher has a close relationship with the Indian who watches over his son.

When space aliens appear on the scene and begin kidnapping local residents, all the groups band together to fight the aliens. The message is clear. It has been used by government leaders (and tyrants) for centuries: to establish local harmony, simply unite the masses against a common enemy.

The "western" part of this western works well. It begins as a classic western would — with a sweeping panorama of the desert, complete with sage brush and sandy cliffs. The story is character driven, and as we learn the characters’ back stories we discover why children behave the way they do when they become adults. Favreau's point seems to be that the more we know about why people act as they do, the more we will come to understand and accept them. This point is made with special effect in the case of Woodrow Dolarhyde, whose personality warms throughout the film. Through Dolarhyde we also learn the true meaning of fatherhood, as we see his maturing relationship with three young men: his son, Percy (Paul Dano); the Indian hand (Adam Beach) who looks out for Percy; and Emmett (Noah Ringer), an orphan boy whom Dolarhyde takes on. It's a little heavy handed, but an important value nonetheless.

The casting is excellent. One of the standouts is Paul Dano as Percy, Dolarhyde's spoiled, juvenile delinquent son who shoots up the town with impunity, knowing that Daddy will fix things for him later. Another is Clancy Brown as Meacham, the local minister who spouts aphorisms while toting a gun. He's a practical kind of preacher, and I liked his philosophy, which offers such wisdom as "It's not who you were, it's who you are," and "Whether you go to heaven or hell isn't God's plan but your choice." Sam Rockwell is endearing as Doc, the innkeeper who must learn how to shoot a gun and "be a man." And 12-year-old Noah Ringer is marvelous as Emmett, the boy who also learns to be a man during the quest to destroy the aliens. My only complaint is Ella (Olivia Wilde), the obligatory girl who comes along for the ride. Her role eventually deepens, but for half the film she is simply a drain on the landscape.

However, as much as I loved the idea of this film, the manifestation of the idea doesn't quite work. The alien part of the movie is simply too alien for a western. For one thing, westerns are slow-paced and character-driven; space aliens have no character. The two simply don't mix. Moreover, the metaphor is so heavy-handed that the aliens never really enter the story. The humans never even question who the aliens are, where they came from, or how they are able to fly through the sky. We're just supposed to know what they represent — invaders seeking to plunder the minerals under the soil and turn them into fuel. Sound familiar?

This is the second "alien encounter" film produced by Steven Spielberg this summer, but oddly, although the aliens in both films look nearly the same, the message of the two films couldn't be more different. In Super 8 the message is "An alien is just a friend you haven't met." Here, the alien gets caught on earth while he's just passing through, and the nasty government scientists kidnap him. In Cowboys and Aliens the beings from outer space are plundering invaders and the message is "kick their asses back where they came from."

It was nice seeing the Indians, townies, ranchers, and even bandits becoming friends. I especially liked seeing the development of Dolarhyde's character. But I'm not sure I like the idea that we can only become friends by uniting against an enemy. The film tries hard to please, but the metaphor overpowers the story and collapses from its own weight.


Editor's Note: Review of "Cowboys and Aliens," directed by Jon Favreau. Universal Pictures, 2011, 118 minutes.



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The Thin Blue Line

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Maricopa County (AZ) sheriff Joe Arpaio has done it again.

If you’re familiar with the sheriff’s methods, that “it” has you uneasy even before you click the link. What did he do this time? Is the “it” an old favorite, such as forcing an illegal immigrant to give birth while shackled, hunting illegals in the desert from behind the turret of a .50-caliber machine gun, or defending his prison guards after their fatal battering of a mentally retarded man accused of misdemeanor loitering? Or is this “it” a newly-devised offense against both Constitution and decency?

Unfortunately for everyone under his jurisdiction, it’s the latter. In late March Sheriff Joe mobilized his tank, his armored troop carriers, his SWAT platoon, and his bomb-defusing robot, in order to serve a warrant on Jesus Llovera, a man with no felony convictions and no history of owning or even displaying any weapons. Llovera’s alleged crime? Breeding birds for cockfighting.

Now, Llovera does have one prior on his record: a misdemeanor for attending a cockfight. And he did have 115 of the birds on his property (all of which, rather needlessly, were put to sleep during the raid) that were more than likely intended for similarly cruel spectacles. So this is a bit more focused than when Arpaio raids retail stores on the off chance that some of their employees lack visas. But even with probable cause and a legally obtained warrant to serve, what could possibly justify such an ostentatious show of force?

For Arpaio, the answer is always simple — and certainly has nothing to do with any book of local, state, or federal law. No, what Sheriff Joe craves is the spotlight, and he will do anything — any “it” — to get himself in front of the cameras. In this case, the “it” he did was to organize this whole raid in order that C-list celebrity Steven Seagal could ride along and look tough in a tank for his reality show Lawman.

Remember: SWAT teams were originally instituted to deal with extreme threats to the public safety, such as the ex-Marine Charles Whitman, who barricaded himself in the University of Texas clock tower and rained bullets onto the crowd below. Now we have entire departments going out in full riot gear to arrest a single unarmed man and euthanize his chickens.

Whether that makes for gripping TV drama is a question I leave to Seagal’s dwindling audience to decide. I am sure, however, that it doesn’t make for good policing — and just as sure that Arpaio doesn’t give a damn.



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Tell Me Why

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From a Los Angeles Times story posted online on Nov. 29, concerning the alleged terrorist Mohamed Osman Mohamud, who allegedly tried to assassinate hundreds of men, women, and children at a Christmas celebration in Portland, Oregon, for the alleged reason that he “hated Americans”:

“Officials said Mohamud was born in 1991 in Mogadishu, capital of Somalia, at the start of the African country's civil war.

“He and his parents, Mariam and Osman Barre, came to America when he was 5 as part of a diaspora that brought tens of thousands of Somali refugees to U.S. cities. About 6,500 Somalis are said to live in the Portland area.

“Few details were available about Mohamud's early years. It wasn't known when he became a naturalized American citizen. . . . In 2008, the family settled in the newly built Merlo Station Apartments [in Beaverton OR], which provides housing for low-income families.”

Yes, that’s it, isn’t it? Suddenly, and for no apparent reason, tens of thousands of people from a politically primitive area of the world refugee out to . . . where else? America. No one knows why.

Thousands of them “are said” to have congregated in Oregon, of all places. No one knows why. Of course, they take advantage of “housing for low-income families.” I would, too.

But a press release (May 29, 2008) hailing the existence of Merlo Station Apartments should be read by everyone who believes that unrestricted immigration is an aspect of free enterprise:

“Merlo Station Apartments received financing from a variety of sources, including a $6.5 million Low-Income Housing Tax Credit equity investment from Enterprise [Community Investment], $9.5 million in permanent financing from U.S. Bank, which includes $5.8 million in tax exempt bonds, a $3.6 million loan subsidized by Oregon Affordable Housing Tax Credits, $700,000 from the city of Beaverton and $2.2 million from Washington County Community Development through the federal HOME Investment Partnerships Program, along with permit fee waivers of $226,000 from the city of Beaverton. The project also received predevelopment grants from Washington County Community Development and Home Depot, as well as predevelopment loans from the Federal Home Loan Bank and the Community Housing Fund. TriMet provided a discount on the land price.”

All this do-gooding for 128 apartments.

But to return. Some or all of the Somalis, including the young man in question, became American citizens. No one knows when, or why, or how. “It wasn’t known.”

Is this a good thing?




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